Basic Sports Betting Analysis
Getting the right odds for your bets might be the most important part of being a winning sports bettor. If you find the right odds, any bet might produce a profitable opportunity. If you want to be able to win at sports betting, which also includes cricket betting, you need to keep money at several sportsbooks to be able to take advantage of the different odds presented by the bookmakers. If not having money at everyone, you need to atleast be able to fund them instantly. This can be done using NETELLER for example, check out our NETELLER review if you are interested in an online e-wallet that is quick and easy to use for this purpose.
For most people, this concept is hard to grasp. I have tried to explain this to my friends who many consider some of the smartest people in their fields, and still they don't seem to "get" why odds is the most important part when choosing your bets, and not trying to deduce who will win the specific event. Even though Manchester United is the overwhelming favorite if they were playing Queens Park Rangers at home, if you are given the odds of 1.01, betting on them would probably not be a good bet. The reason for this might seem obvious to some, but most of the bettors will not grasp this concept. For this reason, I will break this down into a lot simpler terms, so that people hopefully will understand the importance of getting the right cricket betting odds.
The concept of win probabilities
As I already explained, most people talk about games and their own predictions in very bombastic terms. You will hear statements like: "Man United will win this easily", "QPR doesn't stand a chance", and so on. While these statements does not exclude the event of a non-Manchester United win, it most certainly seems like the person stating this seems to be under the impression that the chances of Manchester United winning are ~100%. This is also the crux of this problem: most bettors do not look at a betting opportunity and assign probabilities to the different outcomes (as they should), but merely look at the game and take a subjective guess at who they think will win, and bet accordingly. This is not the way to go about it if you want to win at sports betting. What you need to do, is find a way to get estimates for the probabilities of the different events occurring. Using these, you can compare this to the odds offered at several bookmakers and bet at the ones that offer you odds which would give you positive expected value (or +EV). Now, how to get estimates of these win probabilities would be an entire article series in and of itself, so I will not delve into this here. You can derive this however you please, but I will show you how you can figure out if your bet will be +EV using the odds you have at your disposal.
What does the cricket betting odds tell us?
Let us take a look at the odds presented to us in the test match between India and Australia:
- India: 2.20
- Australia: 5.50
- Draw: 2.37
Most people on here should know what these odds means, if not, check out our article called betting odds explained. The odds explicitly expresses what returns you can expect if your bet wins. However, it also tells something implicitly; what kind of win probabilities the specific outcome has with this sportsbook. In other words, you can find out what probabilities the bookmaker assigns to each of the teams winning (or the draw) and bet accordingly when you find out what probabilities you have on them. Let me show you how to calculate this on our example:
|Outcome||Odds||Implied Probability||Win Probability||+EV Odds|
Now for an explanation of the table. To get the implied probabilities, you simple divide 1 by the odds, with India for example, 1/2.20 = 45.45%. When you have done this for each outcome, you sum up the probabilities and you might notice that you get a sum that is bigger than 100%, more specifically 105.8%. The reason for this is that the bookmaker needs to make money, and does this by taking a % of each bet you place. This is called the theoretical hold. If the event gets equal amount of action in relation to the probabilities, the bookmaker stands to make 5.8% of the total amount wagered. Now, you can find the probability this implies that they actually assign to the events. This can be found by dividing the implied probability by the theoretical hold. This done for India; 45.45%/105.8% = 42.95%. With this lower probability, the wager stands to expect a loss if we assume that the bookmaker has done their job on creating the odds.
What can you now do given this information? The most obvious thing you can do, is trying to come up with your own estimations for the teams win probabilities and then bet on the events where your estimations is bigger than the implied probability for the event. Remember that you need to use the implied probabilities and not the ones adjusted for the hold as you also need to beat the vigorish to be able to win at sports betting. Another idea you could implement is to use this calculation on bookmaker you know are great at setting the correct odds to find estimations which you use to compare to other sportsbooks odds and bet the ones which are off by a good margin to the estimates you find at your sharp bookmaker.
So now you have some basic information about sports betting which you could use to start doing your own analysis of cricket bets. It may be easier to just tail other bettors, but doing the work yourself and beating the other punters to the better odds will be even more profitable and for some people more fun. Hope you got something out of this article!