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Our "Prediction Wizard" will calculate, based on the current available betting odds, the implicit winning percentages for the possible outcomes in a match. This will be updated as soon as we fetch the odds from the betting sites and keep updating until the match is finished.
|AB de Villiers||6||5||1||0||120.00|
|Faf du Plessis||120||178||18||2||67.42|
|Quinton de Kock||4||4||0||0||100.00|
|AB de Villiers||69||119||7||1||57.98|
|Faf du Plessis||0||1||0||0||0.00|
|Quinton de Kock||39||74||4||0||52.70|
Cricket has been the furthest thing on the mind of players and spectators ever since the ball-tampering scandal broke but there is still the issue of an intriguing last test to be played. South Africa is leading 2-1 and is in sight of registering its first win against Australia on home soil. For the Aussies, the aftermath of the ball tampering incident has meant that they will be without some of the best players. Will South Africa roll over a weakened Aussie team or will the visitors come back hard to change the nature of discourse?
It may seem now that the South Africans were able to register an easy victory in the third test but things were very close after the first inning of both teams. It took some special performances from Dean Elgar, AB de Villiers, and Morkel to be able to push South Africa well ahead.
Of course, eventually, Aiden Markram, Quinton de Kock, and Vernon Philander got some vitals runs in the second inning while Kagiso Rabada found a much better rhythm to help bring the Aussie rearguard to an end.
We don’t see any changes being made to the team for the fourth test. Temba Bavuma did not score too many runs in this match but he is too valuable a player of Australia to dismiss after just one test match. The Wanderers has traditionally offered the most help to the fast bowlers among South African grounds so there is a small possibility of Keshav Maharaj being replaced by Lungi Ngidi.
Everything seems to be working for South Africa at the moment but they will be wary of underestimating the Australians. Dean Elgar’s inning actually covered up some batting weaknesses that were exposed in the first inning.
Hashim Amla and Faf du Plessis seem to be struggling for form. Aiden Markram has played two good innings but otherwise gotten out early. It’s a hit or miss situation with him right now. AB de Villiers is no doubt looking like a million dollars every time he steps on the field but has yet to go on and register the big scores.
The Australian bowling lineup has been tainted after the ball tampering incident and they are going to come hard at the South Africans. Elgar and co. need to be at their best.
The South African bowlers, on the other hand, can be expected to have an easier time in this test match. Their opponents have just lost their two best batsmen and their first choice opener. Rabada, Morkel, Philander, and possibly Maharaj will be very tough to negotiate on a lively Wanderers pitch.
At the outset, this is South Africa’s game to win. The challenge for them will be to concentrate on their game and not get distracted by everything else that is happening around them.
Dean Elgar, Aiden Markram, Hashim Amla, AB de Villiers, Faf du Plessis, Temba Bavuma, Quinton de Kock, VD Philander, K Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Morne Morkel.
Is this the biggest crisis that has ever hit Australian cricket? Players from other teams have been sanctioned for ball tampering before but never has a test match captain agreed to pre-meditated ball tampering as a team strategy.
The result is that Steve Smith, David Warner, and Cameron Bancroft will not be available for the last test match for Australia. That’s three out of the top-4 of Australia’s top-order and puts them at a massive disadvantage going into the last match.
Matt Renshaw, Joe Burns, and Glenn Maxwell have been named as the replacements for these three players. It seems certain that Renshaw and Burns will fill up the opening spots while the middle order spot of Steve Smith could go to either Peter Handscomb or Glenn Maxwell.
To have three players come in and get acclimatized to foreign conditions straight away is not an easy task. Thankfully for Australia, though, all three players are very talented.
Matt Renshaw has been scoring runs by the truckload in Sheffield Shield cricket. Burns and Maxwell have played some very useful innings as well. All the three players are also former international players and know what they will be up against.
The rest of the batting lineup will have to punch beyond their weight to help Australia make up for the missing players. Shaun Marsh and Mitchell Marsh have looked good but tend to give away their wickets after doing the hard work.
Usman Khawaja is under pressure to start performing regularly at the test level. With so many new players coming in, all the established players will worry about their places because eventually, the three banned players will return to claim their places.
With a wobbly batting lineup, it looks likely that if Australia is to be competitive in this match then it has to be on the back of its bowlers. Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, and Josh Hazelwood are still the best fast bowling attack in the world. Nathan Lyon has cooled off a little after starting strong but he is still a quality bowler.
Australia could also maybe include someone like Jhye Richardson or Chadd Sayers and go in with an all-seam attack. The Aussies must remember that their attack decimated England just a few months ago and has had South Africa in trouble on this tour as well.
With conditions now best suited to them, they could very well run through the South Africans.
Joe Burns , Matt Renshaw, Usman Khawaja, Peter Handscomb, Shaun Marsh, Mitchell Marsh, Tim Paine, Pat Cummins, Nathan Michael Lyon, Chadd Sayers, JR Hazlewood.
The team winning the toss will likely choose to bowl first
Read our guide on toss predictions to learn how we analyze and come up with our tips.
The Weather conditions for this match have predicted some showers on day three, four and five of the match. The first couple of days are predicted to be dry, though, with some harmless clouds around. There is going to be some grass on the pitch but nothing close to what South Africa served up India. With South Africa ahead 2-1 and not needing to risk a victory, the pitch will offer bounce and pace but not excessive movement.
Australia has everything going against them and has nothing to lose. It is difficult to see their batting hold up against the South African attack in this game. That being said, the Aussie bowling is very dangerous and could tilt the game in its favor.
We are going to go with the underdog and back Australia in a low scoring thriller.
Back Australia to win.
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