How to Predict Cricket Matches

Everyone wants to know how to beat the books. To make more monies betting on cricket matches.

Chances are that’s why you’re here.

Fair enough. But there’s something you should know before we jump into the ‘how to’ part of things –

This isn’t something you can learn or put together in an afternoon. What I’m going to explain below will take you months – no, years – to put together. Even then you still may not be able to beat the books and their math whizzes.

But, if you’re willing to try we’ll go ahead and get started.

The Best Way to Predict Winners: Create Your Own Systems

The best way to predict winners is to create your own systems. Your own predictive models using algorithms.

The end goal is to use this algorithm to assess the probability of an outcome (be it for a team, individual, event, etc.). Then compare it to the bookmaker’s odds to find value aka profitable bets.

Because, you see, profitable sports betting is about more than predicting who will win. You also need to find the right bets to make. The markets that have value. Otherwise you won’t make any money at this.

So, how do you do that?

You’ll need these 4 things:

  1. An understanding of probability theory.
  2. Some tech knowledge.
  3. Knowledge of your sport.
  4. Data

There’s no way we can cover all that in this article. You’re going to have to Google a lot of this.

But I’ll see if I can’t point you in the right direction.

1. Probability Theory

You want an understanding of probability theory to use for inspiration for your models.

There are two places I suggest you start looking:

  1. http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/independent-events
  2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theory
2. Tech Knowledge

The very least you’ll want an understanding of is how to use a spreadsheet.

But, based on my research, the guys who take this seriously learn how to work with spreadsheets, databases, and even some basic (PHP) programming.

Part of this is to make more detailed tests and analysis’.

The other part is leverage. To make the programs do the heavy lifting for you.

Here are a couple places to learn about this stuff:

And if you want to learn how to do it (instead of hiring someone to do it), try one of these places:

3. Sport Knowledge

This goes hand-in-hand with data, which will be covered next.

But you want to know your sport (cricket) so you’ll know where to start analyzing. That includes having knowledge of both the team and players, as well as in-depth knowledge of the different betting markets.

Here are some things you’ll want to know:

  • Who each team is.
  • Who each player is.
  • How each team or player has done this season/match.
  • Their track record overall.
  • How they do in good/bad weather.
  • How they do with or without home field advantage.
  • If they’re strong starters or finishers.
  • If they tend to choke under pressure.
  • Who is injured or maybe is just coming off of being injured.
  • Etc.

And be sure to relate this to the markets you’re going to try to bet. In other words, the markets you’ll be betting will impact how you analyze each team/player (since they’ll go hand-in-hand).

4. Data

Data is what makes this whole thing work. You need (to input) data so your model can spit out results for you to test.

This means doing some research. A LOT of grunt work.

The very least you’ll want are final scores. But in an ideal scenario you’ll also get data on things like:

  • Innings
  • Opposition
  • Ground / Location
  • Catches
  • Matches
  • Not outs
  • Runs
  • Highest score
  • Batting average
  • Centuries
  • Half-centuries
  • Run rate
  • Etc.

Some places to find this data include:

Some places are free, while others will cost you money for access.

Before you discount paid options, just know this – if a paid option gives you some kind of leverage, like API access, it’ll probably be worth it.

It’ll sure beat adding all the info by hand.

Either way, start adding the info to your spreadsheet/database and let it rip.

Conclusion

Honestly, this is a very basic guide – an overview – to creating your own betting models.

You still have a lot of research ahead of you. There’s a good chance you’ll need to learn about each thing I mentioned – probability theory, tech, sport knowledge and data – before you can even start doing the legwork.

And, that’s probably going to be the easy part.

The hard part will be building this thing so it not only works, but helps you to predict winners and, more importantly, find value in different markets.

Good luck.

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